Thought provoking analysis. Your claim of “deterrence through escalation” and Tehran’s willingness to widen a conflict to deter can be likened to Herman Kahn’s nuclear escalation ladder. One of the rungs considered widening a nuclear conflict but in a controlled manner outside of an adversary’s core and critical regions. I think this logic applies for conventional wars too, more so with what is happening now in the Gulf. We have to remember that deterrence is a psychological game, the fact that no one has pulled the trigger yet means deterrence is still at play.
Thought provoking analysis. Your claim of “deterrence through escalation” and Tehran’s willingness to widen a conflict to deter can be likened to Herman Kahn’s nuclear escalation ladder. One of the rungs considered widening a nuclear conflict but in a controlled manner outside of an adversary’s core and critical regions. I think this logic applies for conventional wars too, more so with what is happening now in the Gulf. We have to remember that deterrence is a psychological game, the fact that no one has pulled the trigger yet means deterrence is still at play.
This is a great piece, very sharp analysis. It seems that Tehran regrets not doing more earlier to deter what was coming
Keep bombing the IRGC. Seize Kharg. Payroll runs out and the Iranian economy collapses. Revolt is a certainty at that point.