True, it's an ambiguous situation. But one aspect is not: the economic impact on Iran. Much is made about fuel prices in the U.S., but the impact is trivial compared to what's happening in Iran.
In 2025, Iran cleared $40 billion in oil revenues net of expenses. That's $3.3 billion a month. Some of those expenses are the amortization of equipment; in cash flow terms, they cleared $4 billion a month. That income is now zero. The loss amounts to 13.5% of GDP. That's looking at it narrowly, as if there aren't spinoff effects, not to mention the losses from U.S. and Israeli attacks.
One way to look at those talks is that they were a figleaf for the U.S. to say it tried to negotiate. The current activity in the Strait looks very much like a dare to Iran to attack the U.S. Navy and reap the whirlwind, the whirlwind being American seizure of Kharg, the terminals, and the oil fields.
I don't know how it will go, nor do you. I wouldn't jump to conclusions, nor would I ignore what the interruption of Iran's oil sales is doing to their economy, which was already under great pressure.
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UPDATE: Did more research. A lot more. The war is costing Iran 70-75% of its monthly GDP, vs. 2% for the United States. They are looking over the edge of a cliff. It's a long way down.
True, it's an ambiguous situation. But one aspect is not: the economic impact on Iran. Much is made about fuel prices in the U.S., but the impact is trivial compared to what's happening in Iran.
In 2025, Iran cleared $40 billion in oil revenues net of expenses. That's $3.3 billion a month. Some of those expenses are the amortization of equipment; in cash flow terms, they cleared $4 billion a month. That income is now zero. The loss amounts to 13.5% of GDP. That's looking at it narrowly, as if there aren't spinoff effects, not to mention the losses from U.S. and Israeli attacks.
One way to look at those talks is that they were a figleaf for the U.S. to say it tried to negotiate. The current activity in the Strait looks very much like a dare to Iran to attack the U.S. Navy and reap the whirlwind, the whirlwind being American seizure of Kharg, the terminals, and the oil fields.
I don't know how it will go, nor do you. I wouldn't jump to conclusions, nor would I ignore what the interruption of Iran's oil sales is doing to their economy, which was already under great pressure.
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UPDATE: Did more research. A lot more. The war is costing Iran 70-75% of its monthly GDP, vs. 2% for the United States. They are looking over the edge of a cliff. It's a long way down.
Fuck off