Here’s a simpler explanation. The Iranian regime is near collapse and are losing control. The U.S. and Israel hold the keys to Iran’s post-Islamic Republic future. There is nothing the IRGC can do about the U.S. counter-blockade which the IRGC brought upon itself by its deliberate breach of international law in closing a free passage waterway.
Now, just as the UK did with its blockade of Germany in WWII, the counter-blockade will continue until the Iranian regime agrees to the U.S. terms left on the table by VP Vance.
As the presumed descendants of the inventors of chess, when you are in a checkmate position, there is only one option.
This is just pure chaos in the fragmented remnents of Iran's government. As noted, Trump has all the cards and the blockade is the final turn of the screw.
The only card they have left to play is to do delay in any way possible as it involves the regimes survival. They fear their people far more than they do us and the Israelis. Nonetheless, they get weaker everyday. Trump knows this.
The "Trump Blockade" is just performative bullshit; The world slides into economic collapse. China lives off its reserves. The US bombs and throws in an ill-times and desperate land invasion and we rinse, cycle and repeat until everyone is completely exhausted with the US and its cat's paw Israel.
Are you paying attention? Iran is done. It was over the moment they started bombing and all their leadership were killed 6 weeks ago. If it wasn’t for the western media and the fools in the EU and Britain protecting them with false propaganda you would realize this.
Let me explain so you’re clear. Iran was defeated weeks ago, they have nothing and if they try any nonsense they will be taken to the Stone Age. The US military and Donald Trump have the full support (over 80%) of the American people to finish it. Europe and Britain are now fully irrelevant. Perhaps we can all move on now and MAGA.
Three days into this war I wrote: "I don't know what type of regime will come out of this. My bet though is that the IRGC will throw off the cloak of the priest superiors."
The hardliners that sees all of this as the precursor to the shiah end of days will prevail. And they will be happy to accellerate it, although scholars oppose the idea that it could or should be accellerated.
There is about 150 million barrels of Iranian crude afloat, 80% destined for China. So a bit more than two months supply for China at normal levels. And an unknown amount at smaller independent refineries around the world. Then you have the reserves in each country, varying from weeks to months.
The rest of the east is much worse off as is Europe. And specific products like diesel and jet fuel is much harder hit. Worldwide goods transport and varoius trades are already facing shortages, with cancellations and production shortfall happening as I write.
The contradicting messages from all parties cannot be taken on face value, although it appears many writers do. Let us examine a bit. The US is serving contradictions continuously, sometimes within a single post from Trump or others. At the start Trump stated it would be all over in a few weeks. What did we see? We saw THAAD radars knocked out, US bases abandoned. An old Iranian navy (largely irrelevant in the strait of Hormuz) wiped out. Hardly any last generation Iranian missiles used. No significant damage to the deep down Iranian armouries. A lot of high ranking IRGC leaders taken out. Strait of Hormuz closed. A failed attempt at retrieving enriched Iranium Uranium. Apparently no uprising by the Iranian population.
It is reasonable to assume Iran still has the capability to devastate key installations in the neighbouring countries as threatened. Any navy attempting to navigate the strait is sitting duck.
The apparent confusion in the Iranian top is quite possibly the IRGC taking full open control, they have been preparing for this for decades. The clergy appears to be more and more sidelined and the more pragmatic secular administration is trying to assert itself, and by all accounts failing. The IRGC has learned the hard way (reinforced by pager attack on Hezbollah, "daddy's home" in Gaza, and now pin point attacks in Teheran++) that tracing via mobile devices is to be taken seriously. So more than likely Chinese equipment avoiding this is used even though it is not quite as efficient.
As the Russian invasion in Ukraine has shown, there are no easy fixes here. And do remember, Iran is a big country with a challenging topography and 90 million inhabitants. The topography overlooking the Strait of Hormuz is a challenge in itself.
A bit of humility is always in order. We never know how these things will turn out. Having said that, the IRGC seems to be sending mixed signals, their munitions and ability to rearm must be severely degraded, and the U.S. has tremendous firepower in theater. If Trump doesn’t “finish the job “, resulting in Iran accepting U.S. terms re: nukes, ballistic missile capabilities and the funding of proxy wars, or in regime change, future anthologies of the world’s wars will note that Trump was at the 5 yard line and decided to punt. He can be like most presidents, or he can reset the global equilibrium in a way that will benefit humanity, and especially the Middle East, for the next century. I don’t know who he listens to, or what his priorities (Deal!) are. But we will soon know whether we have a consequential president or another in our long list of mediocre placeholders.
US doesnt give a sheet about freedom for the Iranian people. Neither did the British, and certainly not the Jews. If they did, they would have planned a real invasion, not a bomb all the schools campaign. Iranian expat community is still full of finger licking goof balls even after Trump openly stated he doesnt want regime change. Reality = Not your imagination.
We should give no power to any narrative coming out of Iran. The blockade is in full force, the country has been defeated militarily, the western media is doing everything it can to help them but words do not trump military victory. The US has defeated them, period.
Like Cuba Iran is done. The longer they wait to fully surrender the worst it will be for them.
"Suddenly," the Iranians will realize that the United States is in no particular hurry to finalize, Trump's offer of negotiations this weekend being at least as much for show as anything. The longer they mess around, the closer they will come to long-term catastrophe. I am no particular Hegseth cheerleader, but he really did nail it when he said to them: "Choose wisely."
Here’s a simpler explanation. The Iranian regime is near collapse and are losing control. The U.S. and Israel hold the keys to Iran’s post-Islamic Republic future. There is nothing the IRGC can do about the U.S. counter-blockade which the IRGC brought upon itself by its deliberate breach of international law in closing a free passage waterway.
Now, just as the UK did with its blockade of Germany in WWII, the counter-blockade will continue until the Iranian regime agrees to the U.S. terms left on the table by VP Vance.
As the presumed descendants of the inventors of chess, when you are in a checkmate position, there is only one option.
This is just pure chaos in the fragmented remnents of Iran's government. As noted, Trump has all the cards and the blockade is the final turn of the screw.
The only card they have left to play is to do delay in any way possible as it involves the regimes survival. They fear their people far more than they do us and the Israelis. Nonetheless, they get weaker everyday. Trump knows this.
The "Trump Blockade" is just performative bullshit; The world slides into economic collapse. China lives off its reserves. The US bombs and throws in an ill-times and desperate land invasion and we rinse, cycle and repeat until everyone is completely exhausted with the US and its cat's paw Israel.
Are you paying attention? Iran is done. It was over the moment they started bombing and all their leadership were killed 6 weeks ago. If it wasn’t for the western media and the fools in the EU and Britain protecting them with false propaganda you would realize this.
Let me explain so you’re clear. Iran was defeated weeks ago, they have nothing and if they try any nonsense they will be taken to the Stone Age. The US military and Donald Trump have the full support (over 80%) of the American people to finish it. Europe and Britain are now fully irrelevant. Perhaps we can all move on now and MAGA.
Next!!
Three days into this war I wrote: "I don't know what type of regime will come out of this. My bet though is that the IRGC will throw off the cloak of the priest superiors."
The hardliners that sees all of this as the precursor to the shiah end of days will prevail. And they will be happy to accellerate it, although scholars oppose the idea that it could or should be accellerated.
There is about 150 million barrels of Iranian crude afloat, 80% destined for China. So a bit more than two months supply for China at normal levels. And an unknown amount at smaller independent refineries around the world. Then you have the reserves in each country, varying from weeks to months.
The rest of the east is much worse off as is Europe. And specific products like diesel and jet fuel is much harder hit. Worldwide goods transport and varoius trades are already facing shortages, with cancellations and production shortfall happening as I write.
The contradicting messages from all parties cannot be taken on face value, although it appears many writers do. Let us examine a bit. The US is serving contradictions continuously, sometimes within a single post from Trump or others. At the start Trump stated it would be all over in a few weeks. What did we see? We saw THAAD radars knocked out, US bases abandoned. An old Iranian navy (largely irrelevant in the strait of Hormuz) wiped out. Hardly any last generation Iranian missiles used. No significant damage to the deep down Iranian armouries. A lot of high ranking IRGC leaders taken out. Strait of Hormuz closed. A failed attempt at retrieving enriched Iranium Uranium. Apparently no uprising by the Iranian population.
It is reasonable to assume Iran still has the capability to devastate key installations in the neighbouring countries as threatened. Any navy attempting to navigate the strait is sitting duck.
The apparent confusion in the Iranian top is quite possibly the IRGC taking full open control, they have been preparing for this for decades. The clergy appears to be more and more sidelined and the more pragmatic secular administration is trying to assert itself, and by all accounts failing. The IRGC has learned the hard way (reinforced by pager attack on Hezbollah, "daddy's home" in Gaza, and now pin point attacks in Teheran++) that tracing via mobile devices is to be taken seriously. So more than likely Chinese equipment avoiding this is used even though it is not quite as efficient.
As the Russian invasion in Ukraine has shown, there are no easy fixes here. And do remember, Iran is a big country with a challenging topography and 90 million inhabitants. The topography overlooking the Strait of Hormuz is a challenge in itself.
A bit of humility is always in order. We never know how these things will turn out. Having said that, the IRGC seems to be sending mixed signals, their munitions and ability to rearm must be severely degraded, and the U.S. has tremendous firepower in theater. If Trump doesn’t “finish the job “, resulting in Iran accepting U.S. terms re: nukes, ballistic missile capabilities and the funding of proxy wars, or in regime change, future anthologies of the world’s wars will note that Trump was at the 5 yard line and decided to punt. He can be like most presidents, or he can reset the global equilibrium in a way that will benefit humanity, and especially the Middle East, for the next century. I don’t know who he listens to, or what his priorities (Deal!) are. But we will soon know whether we have a consequential president or another in our long list of mediocre placeholders.
US doesnt give a sheet about freedom for the Iranian people. Neither did the British, and certainly not the Jews. If they did, they would have planned a real invasion, not a bomb all the schools campaign. Iranian expat community is still full of finger licking goof balls even after Trump openly stated he doesnt want regime change. Reality = Not your imagination.
We should give no power to any narrative coming out of Iran. The blockade is in full force, the country has been defeated militarily, the western media is doing everything it can to help them but words do not trump military victory. The US has defeated them, period.
Like Cuba Iran is done. The longer they wait to fully surrender the worst it will be for them.
"Suddenly," the Iranians will realize that the United States is in no particular hurry to finalize, Trump's offer of negotiations this weekend being at least as much for show as anything. The longer they mess around, the closer they will come to long-term catastrophe. I am no particular Hegseth cheerleader, but he really did nail it when he said to them: "Choose wisely."