How would Iran pull this off, i.e., "Tehran is already saying the Strait will not return to its previous regime of free passage"? Where does Iran have leverage militarily? Am I missing something?
Useful analysis. particularly sobering is your blunt assertion that Trump lost the war on March 17 when he called a cease-fire. I find that plausible.
My only quibble with the article is on one formulation. I was surprised by the line that “the presidency and parliament still exist, but they no longer appear to be where decisive choices are made.” That seems right descriptively, but I’m not sure it marks a new development. The presidency and parliament were never where Iran’s decisive strategic or foreign-policy choices were made. Those choices have long rested with the Supreme Leader and the core security institutions around him.
Similarly, if the military and security establishment now has more operational weight, I’m not sure that changes the regime’s basic view of compromise with the West. Of course, much depends on what we mean by “compromise.” But the belief that major accommodation with the United States threatens the regime’s survival has been a defining feature of the Islamic Republic since its inception, not a new consequence of the war
A sobering article. Perhaps the fourth option is the emergence of an inner core within this hard core—akin to the emergence of a Deng Xiao Ping after the collapse of the Gang of Four.
Trump miscalculated and now his bravado might not work.
One thing is for certain, however, the IRGC has jettisoned the clergy overnight and furthermore cemented Iran as a nation-state that cannot be trifled with.
I only wished that a different governing body was in charge: a secular, nationalist and forward looking. Alas…
How would Iran pull this off, i.e., "Tehran is already saying the Strait will not return to its previous regime of free passage"? Where does Iran have leverage militarily? Am I missing something?
Money talks and bullshit walks. Who is funding the ‘regime?’ This article is slop.
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Useful analysis. particularly sobering is your blunt assertion that Trump lost the war on March 17 when he called a cease-fire. I find that plausible.
My only quibble with the article is on one formulation. I was surprised by the line that “the presidency and parliament still exist, but they no longer appear to be where decisive choices are made.” That seems right descriptively, but I’m not sure it marks a new development. The presidency and parliament were never where Iran’s decisive strategic or foreign-policy choices were made. Those choices have long rested with the Supreme Leader and the core security institutions around him.
Similarly, if the military and security establishment now has more operational weight, I’m not sure that changes the regime’s basic view of compromise with the West. Of course, much depends on what we mean by “compromise.” But the belief that major accommodation with the United States threatens the regime’s survival has been a defining feature of the Islamic Republic since its inception, not a new consequence of the war
A sobering article. Perhaps the fourth option is the emergence of an inner core within this hard core—akin to the emergence of a Deng Xiao Ping after the collapse of the Gang of Four.
Trump miscalculated and now his bravado might not work.
One thing is for certain, however, the IRGC has jettisoned the clergy overnight and furthermore cemented Iran as a nation-state that cannot be trifled with.
I only wished that a different governing body was in charge: a secular, nationalist and forward looking. Alas…