I am not paid by Mehdi P. to support whatever he writes, however, again, I agree with the argument set forth by the author in the article:))
Metaphor One: The regime is now a wounded wild animal (a boar, which in Texas, is considered a pest) hiding in bushes. It is bleeding. No doubt about it.
Metaphor Two: The regime has been reduced to a cult, not a small one; rather a fairly large one (as cults go). We see it on the screen--black chador clad women with their ever-present small children and their bearded and uncouth looking husbands, fathers and brothers.
Are they Iranian? Yes, they are.
Are they a sub-set of Iran's population? Yes, they are.
What sets them apart from other Iranians:
1. Their minority position in the overall Iranian society (less than 10%)
1. Their monopoly of political violence (for now), thanks to their possession of small arms and machine guns
2. Their provincial AND religious backgrounds and socializations, respectively
3. Their crudeness yet cunningness (Iranians are one of the most intelligent people on the Planet)
4. Their belief that they have the truth and righteousness on their side
6. Their willingness to KILL (preferable) and to die (less preferable)
7. Their consciousness that they are on their own and this regime of theirs was their FIRST and LAST platform of governance
With continued Israeli destruction of the agents of suppression, the ranks of those that belong to item no. 6 will thin out, leaving the remainder to cede the arena.
Even if there occurs a ceasefire, the regime will metastasize into a Zombie one with a Zombie religion (I use the term Zombie religion, borrowing from the French philosopher, Emmanuel Todd and his three-stage of a religion's demise). The regime will be a bankrupt one, morally, in the eyes of the 90% of Iranians and the rest of the world (apart from Shiite populations in Lebanon, Pakistan and Sunnis in the rest of the world that are intrinsically anti-Semites and anti-Western, but not brave enough to proclaim it. This especially applies to those in Egypt, Jordan, Malaysia and Indonesia).
The regime, post ceasefire, will continue to blast its "victimhood", "bravery" and "fortitude" in the face of an onslaught by the world's first superpower and its nuclear-powered proxy in West Asia (the Middle East).
What to do with this "lot"? Destroy their outer core physically and separate their middle core by rendering them powerless. How? By toppling the regime?
When? When the ceasefire occurs and post-annihilation of the means and tools of suppression.
How? By inciting the 80%-90%ers to replace the 10% on the streets and proclaim the end of the republic of Islamic terror.
Examples in history? The closes one would be the demise of the Argentinian junta after the Malvinas/Falklands war in 1982. Not too close an example, but close enough.
If Metaphor No.2 applies in Iran, it equally applies to Trump’s MAGA cult, deluded and fanatical except that they are less brave than the Iranian cultists. And both cults are equally deadly.
The Islamic Republic cultists murdered thousands of their fellow countrymen and women in a space of two days in January. That's quite deadly. Are you positing that the MAGA will kill thousands in a space of two days in the United States?
Indeed, cultists are prone to seek the death of their opposites and die themselves in the process. Nazis, too, killed and died in their defense of Berlin. The question is: does bravery apply to both cultists and non-cultists?
Don’t obfuscate! Are the MAGA capable, willing and able to kill fellow Americans, the way the Islamic cultists killed 30,000 of their compatriots in January?
Will is intellectually dishonest, that's why he won't reply.
Equating the (unfortunate) death of 2 activists directly meddling in law enforcement to the butchering of 40,000+ civilians... Even the basijis would laugh at this (though of course, they're thankful for the existence of such useful idiots).
For Israel ending the campaign without regime collapse won't be tantamount to defeat, for trump maybe. Israel plays the long game just what the Islamic Regime leaders thought about themselves. Not least because considering its size Israel cannot hope to defeat a country like Iran in a single campaign. Its strategy is rather death by a thousand cuts.
As for the massacre, i don't think the world has had enough chance to gasp at the scale due to scarcity of information which was coming out of Iran. I think the day will come when this atrocity will be revealed in all its horridness.
Israel is not playing the long game they're trying to fight two wars at once and losing both. There's no way this war ends with both Iran and Israel still standing imo
With the islamic regime Israel does. All the intelligence they've been collecting over the years is part of the war against the regime. Israel will stand and continue to stand, what happens to the islamic regime (not Iran) remains to be seen.
It won't stand it's already on its knees, the country is a fucking tinderbox. They literally cannot win this war. They've gone to war with hezbollah three times and been embarrassed each time, only reason they're still standing is because the USA has always been there to bail them out. We're gonna see very soon what happens when the USA doesn't have the weapons, will or ability to bail them out again.
Sounds like you're losing it. Please keep the convo civil. Israel has won 3 wars in its days without US assistance. With Israeli army the problem is not lack of capabilities, skill or ammo but warped values which have been aggressively promoted by the General Staff and the military prosecutor office, the former head of which is under criminal investigation. This seems to be changing, though not fast enough.
I hear that you dislike Israel, but you certainly are not familiar with the country to pass informed judgement.
No need to be civil when talking to insane racists don't worry man
They have been unable to beat hezbollah despite the backing of the biggest super power in world history, the army is a gang of rabid teenage conscripts who only know how to brutalise civilians. They do not have the capabilities to win a war, that's why they're losing this war so badly. The US isn't gonna be there to menace everyone else into submission anymore, Israel has zero friends except them and once they're gone you are fucked
They have smashed Hezbollah, they’ve smashed Hamas. Where will the money come from to rebuild Hezbollah’s arsenal now. What Israel’s plan for Hezbollah is to destroy their capacity enough for the Lebanese Army to finish the job in exchange for the return of south Lebanon.
We would like this to come true, and the article is persuasive, but I'm cautious -- admittedly at a distance, not knowing enough. The main question to me if if the Revolutionary Guard and its tentacles, especially the basij, is so thoroughly embedded that it will re-strengthen. Are there other structures of any kind, or a history of them? Are there principles or a national ideology or history that supercedes what has ruled for 45+ years?
Correct. On the point. Add to it Artesh and Deep State. , who I call “Silent Pillars”. This is why I SPI index, where I measure degree of frictions inside of Iran.
I am not paid by Mehdi P. to support whatever he writes, however, again, I agree with the argument set forth by the author in the article:))
Metaphor One: The regime is now a wounded wild animal (a boar, which in Texas, is considered a pest) hiding in bushes. It is bleeding. No doubt about it.
Metaphor Two: The regime has been reduced to a cult, not a small one; rather a fairly large one (as cults go). We see it on the screen--black chador clad women with their ever-present small children and their bearded and uncouth looking husbands, fathers and brothers.
Are they Iranian? Yes, they are.
Are they a sub-set of Iran's population? Yes, they are.
What sets them apart from other Iranians:
1. Their minority position in the overall Iranian society (less than 10%)
1. Their monopoly of political violence (for now), thanks to their possession of small arms and machine guns
2. Their provincial AND religious backgrounds and socializations, respectively
3. Their crudeness yet cunningness (Iranians are one of the most intelligent people on the Planet)
4. Their belief that they have the truth and righteousness on their side
6. Their willingness to KILL (preferable) and to die (less preferable)
7. Their consciousness that they are on their own and this regime of theirs was their FIRST and LAST platform of governance
With continued Israeli destruction of the agents of suppression, the ranks of those that belong to item no. 6 will thin out, leaving the remainder to cede the arena.
Even if there occurs a ceasefire, the regime will metastasize into a Zombie one with a Zombie religion (I use the term Zombie religion, borrowing from the French philosopher, Emmanuel Todd and his three-stage of a religion's demise). The regime will be a bankrupt one, morally, in the eyes of the 90% of Iranians and the rest of the world (apart from Shiite populations in Lebanon, Pakistan and Sunnis in the rest of the world that are intrinsically anti-Semites and anti-Western, but not brave enough to proclaim it. This especially applies to those in Egypt, Jordan, Malaysia and Indonesia).
The regime, post ceasefire, will continue to blast its "victimhood", "bravery" and "fortitude" in the face of an onslaught by the world's first superpower and its nuclear-powered proxy in West Asia (the Middle East).
What to do with this "lot"? Destroy their outer core physically and separate their middle core by rendering them powerless. How? By toppling the regime?
When? When the ceasefire occurs and post-annihilation of the means and tools of suppression.
How? By inciting the 80%-90%ers to replace the 10% on the streets and proclaim the end of the republic of Islamic terror.
Examples in history? The closes one would be the demise of the Argentinian junta after the Malvinas/Falklands war in 1982. Not too close an example, but close enough.
If Metaphor No.2 applies in Iran, it equally applies to Trump’s MAGA cult, deluded and fanatical except that they are less brave than the Iranian cultists. And both cults are equally deadly.
Will,
The Islamic Republic cultists murdered thousands of their fellow countrymen and women in a space of two days in January. That's quite deadly. Are you positing that the MAGA will kill thousands in a space of two days in the United States?
Indeed, cultists are prone to seek the death of their opposites and die themselves in the process. Nazis, too, killed and died in their defense of Berlin. The question is: does bravery apply to both cultists and non-cultists?
Yes it does; so does cowardice. And the MAGAs are quite prepared to kill thousands of Iranian civilians, and two peaceful Americans at home.
Don’t obfuscate! Are the MAGA capable, willing and able to kill fellow Americans, the way the Islamic cultists killed 30,000 of their compatriots in January?
Will is intellectually dishonest, that's why he won't reply.
Equating the (unfortunate) death of 2 activists directly meddling in law enforcement to the butchering of 40,000+ civilians... Even the basijis would laugh at this (though of course, they're thankful for the existence of such useful idiots).
You are a delusional propagandist. And liar.
For Israel ending the campaign without regime collapse won't be tantamount to defeat, for trump maybe. Israel plays the long game just what the Islamic Regime leaders thought about themselves. Not least because considering its size Israel cannot hope to defeat a country like Iran in a single campaign. Its strategy is rather death by a thousand cuts.
As for the massacre, i don't think the world has had enough chance to gasp at the scale due to scarcity of information which was coming out of Iran. I think the day will come when this atrocity will be revealed in all its horridness.
Israel is not playing the long game they're trying to fight two wars at once and losing both. There's no way this war ends with both Iran and Israel still standing imo
With the islamic regime Israel does. All the intelligence they've been collecting over the years is part of the war against the regime. Israel will stand and continue to stand, what happens to the islamic regime (not Iran) remains to be seen.
It won't stand it's already on its knees, the country is a fucking tinderbox. They literally cannot win this war. They've gone to war with hezbollah three times and been embarrassed each time, only reason they're still standing is because the USA has always been there to bail them out. We're gonna see very soon what happens when the USA doesn't have the weapons, will or ability to bail them out again.
Sounds like you're losing it. Please keep the convo civil. Israel has won 3 wars in its days without US assistance. With Israeli army the problem is not lack of capabilities, skill or ammo but warped values which have been aggressively promoted by the General Staff and the military prosecutor office, the former head of which is under criminal investigation. This seems to be changing, though not fast enough.
I hear that you dislike Israel, but you certainly are not familiar with the country to pass informed judgement.
No need to be civil when talking to insane racists don't worry man
They have been unable to beat hezbollah despite the backing of the biggest super power in world history, the army is a gang of rabid teenage conscripts who only know how to brutalise civilians. They do not have the capabilities to win a war, that's why they're losing this war so badly. The US isn't gonna be there to menace everyone else into submission anymore, Israel has zero friends except them and once they're gone you are fucked
They have smashed Hezbollah, they’ve smashed Hamas. Where will the money come from to rebuild Hezbollah’s arsenal now. What Israel’s plan for Hezbollah is to destroy their capacity enough for the Lebanese Army to finish the job in exchange for the return of south Lebanon.
You can always tell which side is losing by looking at the side that has been begging for a ceasefire since day 1 😆
They haven't smashed anything lol the idf is on its knees and was warning about imminent collapse a week ago
We would like this to come true, and the article is persuasive, but I'm cautious -- admittedly at a distance, not knowing enough. The main question to me if if the Revolutionary Guard and its tentacles, especially the basij, is so thoroughly embedded that it will re-strengthen. Are there other structures of any kind, or a history of them? Are there principles or a national ideology or history that supercedes what has ruled for 45+ years?
If they survive the war, which they will likely do (they are actually winning), they are set for another 50 years.
More investment in missiles, perfect the nuke, use their strategic position on the Gulf to the maximum.
/\ He’s nuts. Like the Iranian regime.
No argument from you.
Empty, void comment.
Do you think Israel is winning? They're getting crushed by hezbollah
The Iranian missiles are hurting Israel.
Iran is successful at blocking Hormuz.
So it seems, a relative win.
Of sorry I thought you were talking about Israel lol
Good analysis!
Correct. On the point. Add to it Artesh and Deep State. , who I call “Silent Pillars”. This is why I SPI index, where I measure degree of frictions inside of Iran.