Thank you for this excellent analysis. Your “filter” system can be applied to other governments hiding behind their lies, deceit and manipulations. Your piece helps to explain Iran. I hope our U.S. policy analysts are familiar with your insight—they should be. Please continue helping us understand Iran. We hope change is coming for the people who have endured this corrupt theocracy for so long.
I've done some international relations work -- really 20 years ago -- and while I had no expertise in Iran or the Middle East, I never trusted what was being said about Iran. It seemed obvious to me that the JCPOA was not just a terrible idea, but worse-than meaningless because there was no real verification. Several years ago, I became friends with an Iranian who defected to the US when the Shah was deposed and that's how I actually learned about Iran. My family is from Hungary and my father immigrated to the US during the 1956 revolution, and there are a number of parallels in the repressive governments in Hungary and Iran. I appreciate the way both the US and Pahlavi are being cautious about sending the Iranian people into the street -- enough Iranians have been killed by the regime already. It also seems like there are indicators that the Iranian population is starting to organize, so hopefully they will have some success when the time comes.
An analysis based on first-hand experience. It puts into a useful context for their audiences the most recent reporting from Tehran of prominent reporters (correspondents) from the UK and US: they report what is allowed, and what is allowed is tailored to what the Iranian regime wants heard in the West at this particular time. This will allow certain anodyne vox pops making reference to protests, economic situation etc but nothing in-depth and proper reporting it isn't. And of course independent Iranian organisations aren't allowed in the country. Fortunately for journalism and for truth, the reporting of Western journalists privileged for whatever reason to be given a visa by the Iranian security apparatus is not the primary source of news about Iran for Iranians within or outside their country.
This is very interesting, not just with respect to the Islamic Republic of Iran, but across many other areas. I struggled a bit to understand the Iraq connection (#8). Can you elaborate on which specific aspects of Iraq were the basis for this element of the case?
Really glad Behnam shared this. The "Institutional Mirage" is a persistent trap. We keep seeing familiar political logic projected onto a system that just doesn't use it. It’s especially visible in how the West misreads IRGC internal shifts as "politics" rather than "positioning." Solid map of why the reporting rarely matches the reality.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. Your “filter” system can be applied to other governments hiding behind their lies, deceit and manipulations. Your piece helps to explain Iran. I hope our U.S. policy analysts are familiar with your insight—they should be. Please continue helping us understand Iran. We hope change is coming for the people who have endured this corrupt theocracy for so long.
Thank you. An very interesting analysis. I kept thinking how much of it applied to the Israeli regime.
Please listen to this
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/religionandethicsreport/iran-regime/106305164
I've done some international relations work -- really 20 years ago -- and while I had no expertise in Iran or the Middle East, I never trusted what was being said about Iran. It seemed obvious to me that the JCPOA was not just a terrible idea, but worse-than meaningless because there was no real verification. Several years ago, I became friends with an Iranian who defected to the US when the Shah was deposed and that's how I actually learned about Iran. My family is from Hungary and my father immigrated to the US during the 1956 revolution, and there are a number of parallels in the repressive governments in Hungary and Iran. I appreciate the way both the US and Pahlavi are being cautious about sending the Iranian people into the street -- enough Iranians have been killed by the regime already. It also seems like there are indicators that the Iranian population is starting to organize, so hopefully they will have some success when the time comes.
https://captainfransentim.substack.com/p/between-diplomacy-and-war-why-defensive?r=5jmmex&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Lawrence of Arabia’s perspective could help: https://thetimetravellers.substack.com/p/lawrence-of-arabia-on-the-iran-war?r=69wi1d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Salam ! could you please restack my article ? If you find it interesting 🙏🏼https://mahnazhatami.substack.com/p/fear-a-mother-who-dances-over-her?r=6a6pnp&utm_medium=ios
In the high-stakes poker of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the "boom" may be the loudest card, but "containment" remains the winning hand.
Read HERE why US may not attack Iran
https://open.substack.com/pub/moderated8d2614d334ec4e16bfcc061/p/trumps-boombastic-fallacy-why-strategic?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=6gfvdi
More power to you. It shows the time spent in understanding both realities and to bridge them to the west.
An analysis based on first-hand experience. It puts into a useful context for their audiences the most recent reporting from Tehran of prominent reporters (correspondents) from the UK and US: they report what is allowed, and what is allowed is tailored to what the Iranian regime wants heard in the West at this particular time. This will allow certain anodyne vox pops making reference to protests, economic situation etc but nothing in-depth and proper reporting it isn't. And of course independent Iranian organisations aren't allowed in the country. Fortunately for journalism and for truth, the reporting of Western journalists privileged for whatever reason to be given a visa by the Iranian security apparatus is not the primary source of news about Iran for Iranians within or outside their country.
This is very interesting, not just with respect to the Islamic Republic of Iran, but across many other areas. I struggled a bit to understand the Iraq connection (#8). Can you elaborate on which specific aspects of Iraq were the basis for this element of the case?
Really glad Behnam shared this. The "Institutional Mirage" is a persistent trap. We keep seeing familiar political logic projected onto a system that just doesn't use it. It’s especially visible in how the West misreads IRGC internal shifts as "politics" rather than "positioning." Solid map of why the reporting rarely matches the reality.